Are we being snowed under by Climate Leadership plan?

By Gwen Chamberlain Amazing stories came out of the Buffalo/Niagara region following the Christmas blizzard. After the pre-Thanksgiving storm in November, it just makes one wonder what might be in store for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Valentine’s Day.

We know there will always be severe storms, but it’s also pretty clear that global climate changes are part of the issue. And just as forecast, New York politicians are lining up to battle over the recommendations coming from the Scoping Plan recently released by the New York State Climate Action Council.

Call it zero visibility for most New Yorkers, but until we have a more resilient power transmission system, might it be a good idea to start shopping for a wood stove or other alternative heat source before buying into the plan for complete electrification of the state? Why? Because if your home’s natural or propane gas appliance needs replacement in or after 2030, you will have to buy an electric version. For commercial size gas appliances, the D-Day will come in 2035.

There doesn’t appear to be any slice of life that won’t be affected by the Scoping Plan’s recommendations to meet the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) that will be part of a transition expected over the next 27 years. It will change the way we manage our homes, how we work, how we farm, how we travel, and more. While most of us in upstate New York know how to prepare for a major storm, will we be able to prepare for the major transitions blowing into our lives with this plan?

It took three years to develop this Scoping Plan, and who knows how long it will take to hammer out actual laws, budgets, and regulations? At the same time, what assurances will appliance manufacturers get for ramping up inventories, and what assistance can residents with limited resources get in order to meet the new requirements that materialize? The goals of the plan are so rich in bureaucratic jargon that readers will doze off, but when they wake up to the plan’s realities, they might think they are in a nightmare.

Here’s what the press release says: “The Scoping Plan’s recommendations will provide the foundation to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, drive critical building and transportation electrification, secure climate justice, and advance the State’s commitment to economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2050 consistent with interim and long-term directives established in the Climate Act…” Take a look at some of the things we can anticipate:

• As early as 2025, updated building regulations will drive decisions about air conditioning, hot water, cooking and dryers in new construction.

• One to two million efficient homes must be electrified with heat pumps by 2030.

• By 2040, New York’s electricity will be 100% zero emission

• By 2050, 85% of homes and commercial building space should be electrified with energy-efficient heat pumps and thermal energy networks.

• Around three million zero emission vehicles will be needed by 2030 (There are roughly 4.2 million registered automobiles in New York now, and about 0.6% or 62,000 are electric.)

New York State will have to find ways to double the state’s electric production by 2050. Will there be sufficient solar and wind installations for such an increase, and how will the capacity of the grid be bolstered to handle the new demands?

Do we really want to see more solar panels taking up prime agricultural land, especially during an era when climate changes are already having an impact on the crops that can be raised here?

The New York Farm Bureau is already pushing back on plans for electric zero-emission agricultural vehicles. Look for changes in livestock management practices, forest management, soil health, nutrient management, and agroforestry.

Changes in recycling and waste management will also be part of the overall picture.

It all will become part of local decisions about conservation, planning, and land use, and will have an overarching influence on local government policy. Can we expect technological advances and new development in power generation and transmission to result in the changes that are the aim of this plan over the next three decades or will we be snowed under by more massive plans, political battles and delays?

Learn more about the 433-page plan at climate.ny.gov.

Do you have feedback on this or a suggestion for a future column? Feel free to email me at gchamberlain27@ gmail.com.

Are we being snowed under by Climate Leadership plan?

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