UFC on ESPN 38: Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson
Sportsbook Wire

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 38 - also known as UFC Vegas 57 - at the UFC's APEX Facility. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 38 Magny vs. Rakhmonov odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

The veteran Magny stands 2 inches taller than the challenger, while holding a 3-inch reach advantage, but he is also 7 years older and on the tail end of an illustrious career.

Each of Magny's past 6 fights have ended up going the distance (5-1). The last fight that didn't involve the judges was a 4th-round KO/TKO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in the main event in Nov. 2018.

Rakhmonov is a perfect 3-for-3 since arriving at the UFC level, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of Carlston Harris last time out in February. His other 2 victories came via submission, including a win over veteran Alex Oliveira at UFC 254 in his debut.

In 15 career pro bouts, Rakhmonov has never went the distance, winning 8 fights via KO/TKO, and 7 by way of submission. The rear-naked choke and the triangle choke are his specialties.

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UFC on ESPN 38 Magny vs. Rakhmonov odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line) : Magny +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Rakhmonov -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-165)
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+140) | No (-200)

UFC on ESPN 38 Magny vs. Rakhmonov picks and predictions

Records: Magny (26-9-0) | Rakhmonov (15-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Rakhmonov (-450) is the on the fast track toward a title in the welterweight division. He has been impressive since arriving, and while a win over Magny (+310) won't necessarily move the needle a lot, it will keep him on his trajectory.

However, you cannot risk 4 1/2 times your potential return, although a win over "The Haitian Sensation" is all but a certainty. And while Magny has ended up going the distance in 6 straight, Rakhmonov has never had a fight go all the way. It won't happen here, either. Take RAKHMONOV BY TKO/KO (+130) for a solid value.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is the best play on the board. Rakhmonov doesn't waste a lot of time, and 2 of his 3 fights at the UFC level have ended in the 1st round. Magny is the most experienced fighter he will have faced to date, but the latter will face the same fate, a quick loss.

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